The €3M lesson: Why your eyes are still important


FOOTBALL PROGRESSION PATH

Helping you create opportunities in football

Hey Reader,

Most scouts would have passed on him.

Average data. Playing for one of the weakest sides in the league. A left-back with numbers that barely registered above the median. On paper, he looked like every other forgettable defender struggling in the bottom half of the table.

Twelve months later, he's moving for €3 million.

The Numbers Told Half the Story

I was part of the process that brought this player in on a free transfer. The data said he was ordinary. Crossing accuracy - decent but not spectacular. Defensive actions - solid but unremarkable. Progressive passes - nothing that would make you sit up and take notice.

If we'd stopped there, we'd have moved on to the next name on the list.

But here's what the spreadsheet couldn't tell us: he was playing for one of the weakest attacking sides in the league. Every defensive action was under pressure. Every forward run was isolated. Every cross was delivered with minimal support.

Context matters more than the numbers suggest.

What Live Scouting Revealed

When you watch a player with your own eyes, you see things that data can't quantify.

His running intensity, both on and off the ball. The way he covered ground up and down that left channel, never letting up, never switching off. Physical data might capture distance covered, but it doesn't capture the timing, the urgency, the relentless nature of his movement.

You see the aggression. The way he attacked every duel, every loose ball, every opportunity to win possession back. That's not something you can measure in a defensive actions per 90 metric.

Then there's his involvement in the attacking build-up. Playing in a weaker side, he was often the main outlet for progressive play down the left. His crossing ability, his combinations in the final third - these stood out precisely because he was doing it despite the limitations around him.

The Stronger Team Theory

This is where experience comes in.

When you're watching a player perform well in a struggling team, you start to picture how they'd look in a stronger setup. More support in attack. Better movement ahead of him. More possession to work with.

The signs were there. His creative output suggested someone who would thrive with better players around him. His defensive work showed he could handle pressure, so imagine what he'd do with less of it.

That's the kind of projection you can only make when you've seen the player in action, not just studied their numbers.

The System That Works

Here's the framework that helped us spot this opportunity:

  1. Data as a filter, not a verdict - Use metrics to identify players worth watching, not to make final judgements
  2. Context over raw numbers - A player's statistics must be viewed through the lens of their team's performance
  3. Eye test for intangibles - Intensity, decision-making under pressure, and tactical awareness don't show up in spreadsheets
  4. Projection thinking - Ask yourself how this player would perform in a different, stronger system

The player we signed for nothing just moved for €3 million. That's not luck. That's what happens when you combine data with observation, when you use your eyes alongside your analytics.

The Takeaway

Don't let average data stop you from watching a player who might be performing above their environment.

The best discoveries often come from players whose numbers don't tell the full story. Players who are doing good work in difficult circumstances. Players whose attributes would shine brighter in the right system.

Your spreadsheet is a starting point. Your eyes are the final arbiter.

That €3 million transfer fee? It's proof that sometimes the most valuable insights come from what you can't measure.

Thanks for reading.

Liam

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Liam Henshaw

I am a data analyst and scout working in professional football. Subscribe and join over4,000+ newsletter readers every week!

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